Energy - smartinvestment.ca

[rogerklam]

9 M+ shares trade today. What happen ?

[Bobwins]

went to a conference in Vancouver this week. Nvs.v presented and I was very impressed. 660 drill sites using current spacing, could be more if they downspace. Cookie cutter operations. Cheap horizontal wells that produce 50-100bpd of light oil. Steady increase in production. They had a map that shows their land and they are surrounded by bigger players like Penwest, Crescent Point, Cenovus, Devon, Baytex. This is a bolt on addition for these bigger players. Novus will be bought, it's just a matter of when.

Why?

Production growth 2010-2012 1115boepd, 1971boepd, 3300boepd

Netbacks 2010-2012 $23.52/boe, 37.54/boe, $53.04

oil weighting 2010-2012 54%, 76%, 84%

They have years of growth ahead.......

Their costs are dropping. They control facilities to handle water, separate gas,etc up to 13,000boepd.

They are forecasting cashflow of .27/share in 2012. Stock sells for C$.87

And here is the long term key.

Using current horizontal wells, they will drain less than 12% of the oil pool. With waterflood, the total recovery goes to 30%!

But these wells will flow economically for decades before you need water flood. And waterflood is expensive. But to bigger players who want reliable cashflow, this is free money. They are in it for decades and will be around to implement those waterfloods and multiply the recovery by up to 3X.

$ per flowing barrel is low, very low considering the high netbacks and increasing oil %. Currently around $50,000/flowing boe. Will be even lower if they hit their exit guidance of 4500boepd. Should be around 100K at fair price. Viking is not sexy but this is a cash machine.

that's why I think Novus is a great long term oil play.

[rogerklam]

Bobwin,
Glad you like the Co.
Cheers
Roger

Stock repurchased:


As of 11:59pm ET September 15th, 2012
Filing
Date Transaction
Date Insider Name Ownership
Type Securities Nature of transaction # or value acquired or disposed of Price
Sep 6/12 Sep 4/12 Novus Energy Inc. Direct Ownership Common Shares 38 - Redemption, retraction, cancellation, repurchase -139,000
Sep 6/12 Aug 31/12 Novus Energy Inc. Direct Ownership Common Shares 38 - Redemption, retraction, cancellation, repurchase 22,500 $0.730
Sep 6/12 Aug 30/12 Novus Energy Inc. Direct Ownership Common Shares 38 - Redemption, retraction, cancellation, repurchase 25,000 $0.740
Sep 6/12 Aug 29/12 Novus Energy Inc. Direct Ownership Common Shares 38 - Redemption, retraction, cancellation, repurchase 34,500 $0.740
Sep 6/12 Aug 28/12 Novus Energy Inc. Direct Ownership Common Shares 38 - Redemption, retraction, cancellation, repurchase 25,000 $0.740
Sep 6/12 Aug 27/12 Novus Energy Inc. Direct Ownership Common Shares 38 - Redemption, retraction, cancellation, repurchase -115,000
Sep 6/12 Aug 27/12 Novus Energy Inc. Direct Ownership Common Shares 38 - Redemption, retraction, cancellation, repurchase 30,000 $0.730
Sep 6/12 Aug 24/12 Novus Energy Inc. Direct Ownership Common Shares 38 - Redemption, retraction, cancellation, repurchase 40,000 $0.720
Sep 6/12 Aug 23/12 Novus Energy Inc. Direct Ownership Common Shares 38 - Redemption, retraction, cancellation, repurchase 25,000 $0.730
Sep 6/12 Aug 22/12 Novus Energy Inc. Direct Ownership Common Shares 38 - Redemption, retraction, cancellation, repurchase 19,000 $0.730
Sign up for an account or login above to see all SEDI filings within the past 6 months.

[rogerklam]

Novus Energy to buy back up to five million shares

http://www.stockwatch.com/News.....p;region=C

[rogerklam]

The buyback program works very well:

Filing
Date Transaction
Date Insider Name Ownership
Type Securities Nature of transaction # or value acquired or disposed of Price
Oct 1/12 Sep 24/12 Novus Energy Inc. Direct Ownership Common Shares 38 - Redemption, retraction, cancellation, repurchase -85,000
Oct 1/12 Sep 17/12 Novus Energy Inc. Direct Ownership Common Shares 38 - Redemption, retraction, cancellation, repurchase -135,000
Oct 1/12 Sep 14/12 Novus Energy Inc. Direct Ownership Common Shares 38 - Redemption, retraction, cancellation, repurchase 20,000 $0.840
Oct 1/12 Sep 13/12 Novus Energy Inc. Direct Ownership Common Shares 38 - Redemption, retraction, cancellation, repurchase 25,000 $0.770
Oct 1/12 Sep 12/12 Novus Energy Inc. Direct Ownership Common Shares 38 - Redemption, retraction, cancellation, repurchase 40,000 $0.770
Oct 1/12 Sep 11/12 Novus Energy Inc. Direct Ownership Common Shares 38 - Redemption, retraction, cancellation, repurchase 25,000 $0.780
Oct 1/12 Sep 10/12 Novus Energy Inc. Direct Ownership Common Shares 38 - Redemption, retraction, cancellation, repurchase 25,000 $0.790
Oct 1/12 Sep 10/12 Novus Energy Inc. Direct Ownership Common Shares 38 - Redemption, retraction, cancellation, repurchase -107,000
Oct 1/12 Sep 7/12 Novus Energy Inc. Direct Ownership Common Shares 38 - Redemption, retraction, cancellation, repurchase 35,000 $0.790
Oct 1/12 Sep 6/12 Novus Energy Inc. Direct Ownership Common Shares 38 - Redemption, retraction, cancellation, repurchase 30,000 $0.800

[rogerklam]

From MD&A

Due to the high quality of Novus’ asset base and the significant amount of industry interest and recent activity in the Company’s Viking oil core area of Dodsland Saskatchewan, the Board of Directors of Novus have struck a Special Committee of the Board to consider how to optimize shareholder value.

[schober]

resu;ts look good to me - any views?

http://www.novusenergy.ca/en/i.....serves.pdf

* Proved reserves at December 31, 2012 increased by 68% to 14.85 million boe, up substantially from 8.84 million boe on December 31, 2011.
* Proved plus probable reserves at December 31, 2012 increased by 56% to 22.72 million boe, up from 14.56 million boe on December 31, 2011.
* The net present value of proved plus probable reserves, before income tax and discounted at 10%, increased to $377.1 million up from $331.3 million at December 31, 2011.
* Oil and natural gas liquids (“NGLs”) at December 31, 2012 represent 82% of proved plus probable reserves on a boe basis and 81% of total proved reserves.
* Total proved reserves at December 31, 2012 represent 65% of total proved plus probable reserves, up from 61% on December 31, 2011.
* Reserve replacement for the year was 829% on a proved plus probable basis and 637% based on proved reserves.
* The Company’s Reserve Life Index at December 31, 2012 was 18.1 years on a proved plus probable basis and 11.8 years on a proved basis (based on annualized fourth quarter 2012 production).
* Finding, development and acquisition costs, excluding future development capital (“FDC”), were $9.41/boe for proved plus probable reserves and $12.25/boe for proved reserves. Including FDC, finding, development and acquisition costs were $26.87/boe for proved plus probable reserves and $28.62/boe for proved reserves.


......................... more

[coach247]

Too bad I am out of this one right now. A Chinese firm has a takeover bid for the company:

http://www.calgaryherald.com/b.....story.html

Congrats to shareholders. Hopefully it will add some sizzle to a few other juniors.

cheers!
mike
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