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Mart Resources Inc mmt.v C$.17
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Bobwins



Joined: 05 Feb 2007
Posts: 1227
Location: Seattle, Wa

PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2012 10:54 pm    Post subject: I added a few as well Reply with quote

I rounded off my holding to an even number with a tiny buy at .85. It will take some time and more good news to get the stock back on an upward trajectory. The Umadesege field is growing larger with each well so I fell good about the medium/long term for Mart.

We should get good news from UM-9 and if the approve a dividend and good Q1 numbers we should be back to the races.
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coach247



Joined: 08 Apr 2004
Posts: 6774
Location: Milton, Ontario

PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2012 5:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I added a few more shares today @ 90 cents on top of a batch I bought last week @ $1.06, so I am not happy with the share drop, but I do not think it is a long term problem. The stock has been rising on the exploration news, and the issues with the current pipeline structure are related to the currently producing wells. Nigeria is a nasty, corrupt place to do business and the stock trades at a discount to its peers on that basis.
cheers!
mike
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Bobwins



Joined: 05 Feb 2007
Posts: 1227
Location: Seattle, Wa

PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2012 2:37 pm    Post subject: It hurt! Reply with quote

Mart is my biggest holding. Woke up late and got a nasty surprise!

The UM-9 news was good. There are several new zones that will add reserves. If they find those same zones at depth under their other wells, reserves could really increase. The UM-9 well, by itself, will extend the reserves of the previously known zones since this is a stepout from previous wells of 2.8km. Testing will take another 5-8 weeks so patience will be required before they find out what the well will test but the pay zones of 400feet indicate this will be another 3,000bpd well.

The bad news in the PR was two fold. The drop in production due to maintenance and down time of the pipeline. I think part of this downtime is in preparation for increased access by Mart. Also the pipeline had very low downtime in earlier months so this is part of the overall average. If high downtime continues, it will hurt production and cashflow. Something to watch carefully.

The second piece of bad news was the amount of oil that has been lost in 2011 to thief and spillage. 213,000barrels of crude is the amount that the pipeline company says was lost from Umadesege field production. The lost amount will be charged off in Q4. That's a lot of money, around $21million dollars. Not all of this is Mart's responsibility but at least 50%.

Investors have short memories. The dispute over pipeline access was centered around Agip's proposal to raise the fee for lost oil to over 10% from 1%. Mart balked and that lead to the stalemate from 5/11 to 12/11. If the lost oil numbers are right, it looks like Agip was telling the truth about the magnitude of loss.

Is this a reason for a 20% loss in market cap for Mart?

Depends on your viewpoint. I think Mart is extremely undervalued and about to get more so when they are able to more than double net production from 3500bpd to 7500bpd by Q2. They made 21million net profits in Q3 on the 3500bpd limit. Profits should at least double in a couple of qtrs. You could take 3million per qtr off the top and still have a huge profit margin.

The increase in reserves should be substantial from the UM-9 stepout AND the new deep zones found in the extra 3,000 feet of drilling depth. In 2012, Mart is going to go horizontal! If these wells produce 3,000bpd vertically, imagine what going to happen when they employ a long horizontal section to these prolific zones!

So I see good news in 2012 for Mart but we will have to suffer thru some more bad news when the reality of the lost oil hurts Q4 numbers AND they start reserving ~$3million a qtr for future losses. Still undervalued. Cashflow is going to ramp up to 35-40million a qtr in 2012. Dividends are probably coming, production is 10,000bpd gross now but is definitely going to 15,000 gross fairly soon and higher yet as they drill more wells in 2012.
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langenburg



Joined: 12 Jan 2007
Posts: 25

PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2012 11:42 am    Post subject: news release Reply with quote

Hey Bobwins.
What is your take on the news release from yesterday.
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kjm



Joined: 13 Jun 2004
Posts: 802

PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2012 10:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I took another position in the 0.80 range, better late than never.

The following post, I pulled off Silicon Investor


Nice post from IH by Digitech on MMT

MMT. What can we expect next from Mart

First at bat is UMU9.
Looks like the company did a very good job on UMU9. This well is so important that the company should have and did take their time to drill it. The first part was drilled at 8,000 and the casing was done before they continued. My understanding is that they just did not do a normal casing but a very strong one. As they go deeper there is a lot of risks of high pressure and the last thing we want is for them to blow up the well. TD should be announced imminently. Monday sounds good to me, please.
It will, I hope, include some production numbers. My guess is around 12K BOPD. It takes time to move up to 15K. Pipelines are a bit tricky in load balancing since it is like a spider web down stream.

I stated before what it could mean if they found news zones with 9. It could be as many as 6 of them if you prorate it to the depth. The new zones may go back to where 6 is just like the upper zones and maybe as far as where 12 is planned. That's about 3 km away. I need to stop drooling on the reserves numbers.
We may be seating on a very very large deposit.

We should get a spud of UMU10 in about 2 weeks.

Next is the Shell deal. (2 weeks time frame IMO)

Now, one more time to set the pipeline expectations. My understanding is that the Shell deal is not a pipeline deal. It is a crude purchase agreement. I hope everybody got that one straight. The agreement is the first step to getting a pipeline.

To make it simple in order to be able to finance a pipeline you need production "check" and somebody to buy the crude on the other side "Shell deal, almost check" You also need a deal to connect to a larger pipeline (pumps, equipment etc.)

The 40 or so km pipeline would cost about $60 to $70M and be financed at 80% with 51% going to a partner and the local government (IMO) just like the AGIP pipeline. My understanding from a long time ago is that the cost would be eligible under the JV as a reimbursement with oil. What a deal!!
Time of construction would be short but with all the land and permit deals we are talking 14 months total time frame.

Next is the restricted cash reversal.

It's very large and complicated. It is taking a lot longer than I anticipated but it's coming. It's a big number. At least $20M in my forecast. No time estimate but soon.


Next during Q1 is Reserves

Q1 will be the time to work on the reserves assessment due first week of April. The 51-101 report will be for reserves as of December 31st 2011. It means that UMU9 will not be included but 7 and 8 will be included. However, if you read the rules you can do an update any time as long as it follows the same format. I would anticipate a release of the 51-101 in early April that would include a February or March update at the same time.
How big will the increase be? Beats me but expect a very big jump of the 3 digits percentage kind.

Next, Year end results.

We will get that at the end of Q1 and it will show a very large increase year over year. We all know that of course but the new to Mart investors do not.

One more item for Q1 will be the $6M payment from the insurance company. Nice chunk of change.


Of course the other one is the special dividend.

A quick calculation will tell you that a 10c divy is affordable at the end of Q1. It is a hot subject and I feel the company will deliver.

Forecasting Mart.

If the expectations of UMU9 prove to be true it is obvious that the company will need a much accelerated drilling program. New rigs should be in the forecast for mor drills around the UMU9 area, re drill around UMU6 and go for the formation where UMU12 is planned. One pre requisite is that Shell deal. The rigs are $3M or so a month to operate and you have to book them for a long period of time. You want to make sure that you have a good plan in place before you do that.

If all goes well this field could produce 30K to 35K by year end.

Anybody wants to put a valuation on that?

A wild card is the sell of Qua Ibo field with 29.6 Mb of probable and possible. Not sure what it is worth since it is hard to get to.


I also think that other corporate actions will be necessary but that's another discussion.

The company is moving to being a dividend paying company. They could afford 20c a year or more by the end of the year!!!!

GLTA it is going to be fun.
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Bobwins



Joined: 05 Feb 2007
Posts: 1227
Location: Seattle, Wa

PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2012 2:31 pm    Post subject: mmt.v +.04 to C$1.06 Reply with quote

Net production should move towards 7,500bpd in Q1 or more than double Q3 production levels. There may be further increases in pipeline capacity but Mart is running out of room fairly quickly. UM-9 results should be very good with potential production in the 3,000bpd range and many pay zones.

Drilling setup allows 4 zones to be produced at once but UM-9 will likely have over a dozen pay zones with several new zones below any previously found.

UM-9 will increase production but also dramatically increase reserves because of the new lower zones they have reportedly found.

2012 should be a breakout year for Mart in terms of production, reserves, cashflow and market cap. I am thinking it will hit C$2 before year end.
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Bobwins



Joined: 05 Feb 2007
Posts: 1227
Location: Seattle, Wa

PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 12:11 pm    Post subject: mmt.v +.04 to C$1 Reply with quote

Looks nice. No news, of course. Nigerian government must be worse than US bureaucracy. Nothing happens fast in Nigeria.

Still waiting for possible dividend, UM-9 test results......
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Bobwins



Joined: 05 Feb 2007
Posts: 1227
Location: Seattle, Wa

PostPosted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 3:46 pm    Post subject: top pick on BNN! +.04 to C$.89 Reply with quote

Peter Imoff of Sprott Asset Mgmt named it as a #1 pick. Talked about doubling earnings by early next year, uplisting to TSX and implementing dividend. Pipeline expansion is the key. They already have the wells drilled, need a way to produce at full capacity.

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip592795
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kjm



Joined: 13 Jun 2004
Posts: 802

PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2011 5:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks Bobwins. I think I may pick up some for a longer term hold. If they are successful, 0.15 will be close to the bottom and should be room for lots of upside.

Congrats on Mart. I ran out of patience a while ago and sold out and have been kicking myself for not reloading when it dipped into the forties.
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Bobwins



Joined: 05 Feb 2007
Posts: 1227
Location: Seattle, Wa

PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2011 3:39 pm    Post subject: Mira Reply with quote

Mira is quite a bit earlier than Mart. Mart has been producing from 3 wells since 2006 so it was producing and cashflow positive when I found it. Mira is still trying to get to production. Their wells are offshore and more expensive than the land based wells of Mart.

Investors apparently didn't like the initial results from the first recompletion. Could still be a good producer but results from the first well are less conclusive than Mart's wells, which tested 7500 to 14,000bpd from multiple pay zones.

I think the jury is out. Need the second well drilled to see if they can get two producing wells going. Need to get the first well producing from multiple zones to get it up to 2500boepd. Single zone tests of 200-500bpd isn't impressive for a $12million dollar well that still needs more work.

Bobwins
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kjm



Joined: 13 Jun 2004
Posts: 802

PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2011 1:42 pm    Post subject: MRP Reply with quote

Hi Bobwins

Since you are big into Nigeria with Mart.........do you have any opinions on Mira? Seems to have a powerhouse management. Maybe a Mart in the making.
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Bobwins



Joined: 05 Feb 2007
Posts: 1227
Location: Seattle, Wa

PostPosted: Thu Dec 22, 2011 3:17 pm    Post subject: Mart finally gets extra pipeline capacity Reply with quote

This should boost potential production for JV to 15,000bpd. Mart has several wells behind pipe but it will take several months to bring all wells into production. Mart will also be careful about ramping up production in each well so they don't damage the formation. So expect 11,000bpd in early January and up from there. UM-9 should be fully drilled, tested and completed by end of January.

There is also talk of a dividend for Mart by end of Q1. Maybe .10 for 2012 and .20 for 2013. Cashflow could be as much as 200million in 2012 for Mart, depending on future drill results.

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Dec. 22, 2011) - Mart Resources, Inc. (TSX VENTURE:MMT) ("Mart" or the "Company") and its co-venturers, Midwestern Oil and Gas Company Plc. (Operator of the Umusadege field) and SunTrust Oil Company Limited, are pleased to announce an increase to export pipeline capacity and a production update for the Umusadege field.
Export Capacity Agreement Update
An agreement has been reached with Nigerian Agip Oil Company ("NAOC"), the Nigerian operator of the export pipeline, to increase the combined export capacity for the Umusadege field and other fields in the area (collectively, the "Cluster") by 10,000 barrels of oil per day ("bopd"), bringing the total export capacity for the Cluster from its current level of 11,000 bopd to 21,000 bopd. The additional export capacity, which is expected to be implemented in several phases over the next four months, will be allocated among the Cluster members on a pro-rata basis based upon the production capacity of the fields in the Cluster and other factors.
The first phase of the export capacity increase, which was implemented this week, has resulted in Cluster export capacity increasing by approximately 4,000 bopd to 15,000 bopd. Since the implementation of the export capacity increase, a majority of increased Cluster export capacity has been allocated to the Umusadege field. Once the additional export capacity is fully implemented, Mart and its co-venturers anticipate that the Umusadege field will continue to be allocated a majority of the total export capacity available to the Cluster.
November Production Update
Crude oil deliveries into the export pipeline from the Umusadege field for the month of November 2011 averaged 7,994 bopd. The Umusadege field experienced production downtime of 1.62 days over this period due mainly to operational shutdowns and export facility capacity curtailments.
Additional information regarding Mart is available on the Company's website at www.martresources.com and under the Company's profile on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.
INVESTOR RELATIONS:
Investors are also welcome to contact one of the following investor relation's specialists for all corporate updates and investor inquiries:
FronTier Consulting Ltd.
Mart toll free # 1-888-875-7485
Attn: Sam Grier
Caleb Gilani
Email: inquiries@martresources.com





CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Dec. 22, 2011) - Mart Resources, Inc. (TSX VENTURE:MMT) ("Mart" or the "Company") and its co-venturers, Midwestern Oil and Gas Company Plc. (Operator of the Umusadege field) and SunTrust Oil Company Limited, are pleased to announce an increase to export pipeline capacity and a production update for the Umusadege field.
Export Capacity Agreement Update
An agreement has been reached with Nigerian Agip Oil Company ("NAOC"), the Nigerian operator of the export pipeline, to increase the combined export capacity for the Umusadege field and other fields in the area (collectively, the "Cluster") by 10,000 barrels of oil per day ("bopd"), bringing the total export capacity for the Cluster from its current level of 11,000 bopd to 21,000 bopd. The additional export capacity, which is expected to be implemented in several phases over the next four months, will be allocated among the Cluster members on a pro-rata basis based upon the production capacity of the fields in the Cluster and other factors.
The first phase of the export capacity increase, which was implemented this week, has resulted in Cluster export capacity increasing by approximately 4,000 bopd to 15,000 bopd. Since the implementation of the export capacity increase, a majority of increased Cluster export capacity has been allocated to the Umusadege field. Once the additional export capacity is fully implemented, Mart and its co-venturers anticipate that the Umusadege field will continue to be allocated a majority of the total export capacity available to the Cluster.
November Production Update
Crude oil deliveries into the export pipeline from the Umusadege field for the month of November 2011 averaged 7,994 bopd. The Umusadege field experienced production downtime of 1.62 days over this period due mainly to operational shutdowns and export facility capacity curtailments.
Additional information regarding Mart is available on the Company's website at www.martresources.com and under the Company's profile on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.
INVESTOR RELATIONS:
Investors are also welcome to contact one of the following investor relation's specialists for all corporate updates and investor inquiries:
FronTier Consulting Ltd.
Mart toll free # 1-888-875-7485
Attn: Sam Grier
Caleb Gilani
Email: inquiries@martresources.com
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Bobwins



Joined: 05 Feb 2007
Posts: 1227
Location: Seattle, Wa

PostPosted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:41 pm    Post subject: mmt.v +.04 to C$.82 Reply with quote

They won't be able to pump it when completed but hope springs eternal!

They are supposedly very close to announcing a new pipeline agreement that would allow them to produce all this oil. Currently around 9,000bpd gross(4500net to mmt). Current capacity after UM-9 will likely be 13-15,000bpd gross. Remember company is building treatment facility to handle 30,000bpd so they have high hopes for this field.


CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Dec. 20, 2011) - Mart Resources, Inc. (TSX VENTURE:MMT) ("Mart" or the "Company") and its co-venturers, Midwestern Oil and Gas Company Plc. (Operator of the Umusadege field) and SunTrust Oil Company Limited, are pleased to provide the following update on the UMU-9 well.
The UMU-9 well commenced drilling operations on November 18, 2011 and is currently at a depth of approximately 8,311 feet, concluding the intermediate vertical section of the well. Open-hole wireline logs have been run with results indicating a total of 11 hydrocarbon-bearing sands. The well logs indicate a cumulative gross oil pay of approximately 260 feet in the 11 sands encountered by the well to date.
The next phase of operations will include conducting pressure surveys on prospective zones and acquiring fluid samples. Well operations will then continue with running 9 5/8 inch casing in the open hole. The bottom hole deviated section of the well will then be drilled with an 8 1/2 inch hole to total measured depth of approximately 11,000 feet to explore the deeper untested targets (including the C0 sand) while running a measurement while drilling ("MWD") tool followed by a logging while drilling ("LWD") tool to evaluate the potential hydrocarbon bearing sands.
CHAIRMAN'S COMMENT:
Wade Cherwayko, Chairman & CEO of Mart Resources, Inc., said "We are very encouraged with the initial open hole well log results in the UMU-9 well. These initial results indicate the potential extension of numerous shallow reservoirs discovered in previously drilled Umusadege wells and demonstrate the upside of the Umusadege field."
Additional information regarding Mart is available on the Company's website at www.martresources.com and under the Company's profile on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.
INVESTOR RELATIONS:
Investors are also welcome to contact one of the following investor relation's specialists for all corporate updates and investor inquiries:
FronTier Consulting Ltd.
Mart toll free # 1-888-875-7485
Attn: Sam Grier
Caleb Gilani
Email: inquiries@martresources.com
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Bobwins



Joined: 05 Feb 2007
Posts: 1227
Location: Seattle, Wa

PostPosted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 4:45 pm    Post subject: price to sell Reply with quote

Mart is my biggest holding so I'm not selling. This is a short term pop based on the hope that the pipeline agreement is going to be inked soon. The exposure of Mart thru Pescod's newsletter and the recommendations by Chen Lin and Jay Taylor have created the volume but the company needs to produce the real deal. They NEED that pipeline deal or the great wells they have drilled in the last couple of years are going to be wasted.

The other reason I wouldn't sell is that WHEN/IF they get the damn pipeline agreement in place AND it's not too punitive to cashflow, MMT.v should have a big move up in price. Once the increased production generates big cashflow, the company could declare a dividend to increase investor interest. That should help the stock price. All this could take several months to fully play out.

If you are a short term investor in Mart, the profits are obviously slipping away because no followup news. $.80 should be a nice profit for anyone who bought this summer. However I think the medium term looks pretty good. The company should get the agreement signed by year end and start 2012 off with a bang. They also could get a big increase in reserves as the engineers review the new production patterns( low decline rates) and the multiple zones that are currently behind pipe.

We also have upcoming news on the UM-9 drilling results and exciting projects like the upcoming horizontal wells that could dramatically increase reserves and production. Company is building out a 30,000bpd processing facility for the Umadasege field! Mart gets 50% after cost recovery so 15,000bpd possible net to Mart instead of the current 4,000bpd!
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langenburg



Joined: 12 Jan 2007
Posts: 25

PostPosted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 4:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What price target would you sell at if it starts falling ???
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